Hang around enough fields or courts after games in any sport, and you will probably hear the ever-popular lament: “Well, they just got lucky…” as a post-game analysis shared from parent to child, player to player or coach to team.
“They just got lucky that shot went in.”
“They got lucky all those terrible ref calls went their way!”
“They got lucky she was injured, otherwise they would have never beat us.”
“They got lucky he fouled out, because it would have been a completely different game otherwise.”
It’s an interesting philosophical debate for how we attribute both credit and blame to luck, especially as parents shaping our children’s perspectives on life and sports.
Luck is an easy scapegoat
So where does luck’s culpability end and a young player’s responsibility for performance and improvement begin?
Even professional teams and players have “unlucky nights” when passes don’t connect and free throws are missed. Responding to pressure from team organizations and owners, coaches may make knee jerk lineup changes and reactionary changes in game strategies because of repeated losses and “unlucky” performances.
How many firings were inspired by a bad season or string of unlucky losses? History shows in most professional sports there have been dramatic player trades and coach staffing decisions when losses stacked up and luck was not in a coach’s or player’s favor.
The impact of outcome bias
Were some of those decisions made under the influence of outcome bias? Outcome bias is making a judgement on the quality of a decision after it’s already happened.
Joseph Price wrote about outcome bias and luck in the NBA. Price writes, “The mark of a good coach is winning by enough points that an opponent’s lucky night at the line is irrelevant.” That is a fair point and he also notes, “Since so many NBA games are determined by such a small margin in the end, it’s likely that we will continue to blame coaches for outcomes that are largely outside of their control. In addition, coaches will continue to make changes from game to game based on chance outcomes.”
Lucky bet
Author, Decision Strategist and former World Series of Poker Champion, Annie Duke, writes in her book Thinking in Bets about the fascinating psychological processes around decision making in our lives, sports and business. Duke explores how “outcomes are rarely all skill or all luck”.
Duke also goes on to suggest, “The way things turn out could be the result of our decisions, luck or some combination of the two…Outcomes are almost never 100% due to luck or skill.”
Do we undervalue accountability by just deferring to luck?
Unfortunately, Annie Duke is not riding shotgun in the car after a long tournament weekend to help us rationalize the outcome and lessons. Many of us are guilty of leaning on luck as a convenient parenting crutch when our athlete’s spirit and ego are wounded. Buzzer beater victories are good examples of when luck may lend a hand, but that is also guided by the mental and physical skills of the player to take that last opportunity to score.
By attributing so much to luck so often though, are we negating the training journey and the learnings that our young athletes experience from the process of victories and defeats?
At the end of the day, because you can’t count on just luck alone to seek you out, at least there’s a possibility – as the saying goes – that “the hard work puts you where good luck can find you.”
“Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity.” Seneca
If the Stoic philosopher Seneca is right, then the answer could be for our athletes to remain focused on honing their physical and mental skills in order to bring their best selves to every practice, training session and competition. After all, those are the elements that are truly within their control.
– Danielle Mintz, Founder of Player EQ
Resources:
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts By Annie Duke
The Blame Game: How Outcome Bias Fools NBA Coaches (and Their Bosses) By Joseph Price November 17, 2017